Looking towards the future of world urban development, cities of the global south will: urp30011/19/2024 ![]() ![]() This is where forecast is different from foresight: whereas the former establishes a future fact (e.g. ![]() However, while mega-trends present a high degree of measurability, they are still open to interpretation. Therefore, mega-trends serve as the backdrop against which any of Europe’s futures will be set in 2030. The longer the data trail, the more reliable the trend. In contrast to many other factors concerning the future, this type of trend can be backed up by verifiable data stretching into the past. In this sense, mega-trends are the strategic forces that shape our future in a manner akin to a slowmoving glacier: they cannot easily be turned around by humans. Because mega-trends are measurable, and affect many, and for a long period of time, they lend a previously foggy future an increased degree of visibility. Most importantly, mega-trends are linked to our present and are therefore phenomena we can already observe today. Mega-trends also unfold over an extended period of time: their lifespan is normally at least a decade, and often longer. As their name suggests, mega-trends are trends that occur on a large scale they therefore affect large groups of humans, states, regions, and in many cases, the entire world. This is because mega-trends have several characteristics in common that help us narrow down the futures from infinite possibilities to a restricted possibility space. Whenever we think about the future, mega-trends are our first helpers. ![]()
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